“procyclicality”

BUVAR - a VaR approach for countercyclical capital buffer

We propose a countercyclical risk measure, BuVaR, the estimated shortfall of a financial institution removed of the effects of procyclicality. It involves inflating one side of the return distribution of an asset by a scaling factor called bubblethat depends on the location of the present state in the boom-bust cycle. BuVaR is countercyclical (it leads crashes), distinguishes between long and short positions (is asymmetrical) and provides an additional buffer for fat-tails by recognizing that